Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
