Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Both authors two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
